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By Eric Silber  One of the most confusing and angering events of Trump's second term, so far, has been the redistricting arms race. Red states (8 at the time of writing) and a couple of blue states across the country raced to redraw their congressional lines to favor one party over the other. In this post, I'm going to break down what happened, what is still happening, and what it means for the 2026 midterms and beyond. Part 1: Redistricting That Favors the Republicans This whole crisis started in the early summer of 2025. President Trump called Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a fellow Republican, and asked him as well as the Texas Legislature to draw new maps that would flip Texas congressional districts that favor Democrats or "blue" to "red" to favor Republicans. Abbott, along with almost every Republican in the Legislature, complied immediately. In the end and despite a slew of lawsuits and court rulings, the redrawn Texas map was approved. The map now included 5 new districts engineered to favor Republicans. According to most political models, 2 of these new districts are likely to be "red", 2 are quite competitive and considered a "toss-up", and 1 district is likely to remain blue. Texas's actions set off a flurry of motion in other Republican states. North Carolina's 1st district was redrawn from "lean Democrat" (i.e., a Democrat has a better chance to win than a Republican) to now being a toss-up. A similar situation happened in Ohio's 9th district. Additionally, a safe blue Missouri district that included Kansas City was split into multiple safe red ones, while Florida moved a district in Orlando from being considered a safe Democrat one to a likely Republican one. Furthermore, a district in Tampa was shifted from a safe Democrat one to a leaning Republican one. To round out the shifts in Florida, 2 districts in Miami that were considered safe for Democrats changed to being a competitive toss-up.
Then came the fateful Callais decision. In May of 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court effectively ruled that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act was unconstitutional. That caused several more red states to begin removing court-ordered majority-minority districts, which usually favored Democrats. In the end, Alabama, Louisiana, and Tennessee all eliminated a safe Democrat seat within their respective states. South Carolina, Mississippi, and other states have indicated that they stand ready to do the same in 2028. Potential Republican seats picked up by redistricting mid-cycle (pending court rulings) : +9 to +14 Part 2: The Democratic Response While many Democrats wanted to respond in court by challenging the obvious gerrymandering by Republicans leading in to the midterm elections, California Governor Gavin Newsom decided to fight fire with fire. In November 2025, in response to Texas's capitulation to President Trump's demands, California voters approved Proposition 50. This would redraw California's maps to be more favorable for Democrats and thereby return the balance of seats in the House of Representatives to its current composition. The map (also approved by courts) shifted a district from a toss-up to a leaning Democrat one, another shifted from a toss-up to safely Democrat, one district shifted from a likely Republican one to likely Democrat, and 2 safe Republican districts shifted to either safe or lean Democrat. The approved map also shored up several vulnerable Democratic seats in the state. Another state where Democrats attempted to respond to the Republican gerrymandering was right here in Virginia. The proposed temporary amendment to the constitution to allow for mid-cycle redistricting passed by special election voting in April 2026. When voters approved the new map, it was set to shift a multiple districts that were either safe or leaning Republican to safe or leaning Democrat. Additionally, a lean Democrat district shifted to a safe Democrat one and a toss-up district shifted to leaning Democrat. Overall, the proposed map would have helped to flip 3-4 seats from red to blue. However, several weeks after a majority of voters approved the map, the Virginia Supreme Court struck it down, citing incorrect procedural actions taken based on the Virginia Constitution's outline of when an amendment can be approved to appear on a ballot. Though Democrats appealed, the results were clear...the proposed map won't be in place for 2026. Still, one surprise victory for Democrats in the redistricting wars came from a ruby red state, Utah. Utah courts declared that the state's map (4 Republican, 0 Democrat districts) was unconstitutional and ordered it redrawn, resulting in a new map (3 Republican, 1 Democrat districts) that will be used for the 2026 midterms Potential Democrat seats picked up by redistricting mid-cycle (no pending rulings): +6 Part 3: What Will Happen Next? Both sides have confirmed that the redistricting arms race will continue into 2028. Blue states including New York, California (again), Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Virginia (again), and New Jersey have demonstrated interest in redrawing their maps next year. Red states including South Carolina, Mississippi, Indiana, Texas (again), Florida (again), Ohio (again), North Carolina (again), Indiana, Nebraska, and Kansas have signaled they may do the same. Final Seat Tally (pending court rulings): R+3-8 Texas: R+2-4 Ohio: Even-R+1 Missouri: R+1 North Carolina: Even-R+1 Florida: R+2-4 Louisiana: R+1 Alabama: R+1 Tennessee: Even-R+1 (pending court ruling) California: D+5 Utah: D+1 Comments are closed.
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